Speculation - Buyer Beware!

Speculation is a part of the martial philosophy as a sort of principle when the discussions arise as to lineage. Okinawan martial arts, karate, has to rely heavily on speculation with a good dose of the time, the culture and ethnic groups, the power relationships, the perceiving person, the sensory input modes, the perceptions of perceptions as to truth and accurate facts, and both the internal and external environments and now we add perception of movement; perception of body language which includes facial expressions, etc.

This means that people are influenced and constrained by their own knowledge, experience, imagination, and attitudes. It is a matter of their internal model of perceived reality inflected by current culture and beliefs, i.e. local circumstances and needs. We have to remember that ever person thinks on a different cultural channel and more so when the cultures are separated by such vastness as East vs. West. 

When we rely heavily on hear-say and circumstantial evidence, i.e. those personal perceptions, etc. then we are then unable to verify and validate for authentic. For a fact, especially a historical fact, to be substantiated it must have more than mere hear-say, etc. It takes more than merely sitting around discussing a subject as if what is said is historical fact. This is why speculation is important in martial arts discussions of lineage. 

Okinawan martial arts have no documented facts that support such hear-say as depicted in many conversations. It is a matter of how the culture and beliefs of Okinawans are and in most cases these types of discussions are just discussions or the people would have provided documentation of historical facts - which they are unable to do. This leaves them with only hear-say and circumstantial evidence of word of mouth to base their martial history unlike the Japanese who are obsessive in their documentation of historical lineage, facts and knowledge with one exception. The Japanese tend toward adjusting such things to suit the moment so they too suffer from questionable historical facts. Regardless, their methods are more acceptable and sustainable under scrutiny.

As long as martial history and lineage are subject to only recollections and remembrances also subject to human frailties, etc. and as long as we have only speculation, hypothesis, and personal conjecture we will never have acceptable and sustainable historical facts to lead us in our studies, etc. 

Then remember there are cognitive biases that affect how history is not only written but interpreted as time flows forward. As humans we are all individually susceptible to such biases that hear-say becomes even more questionable supporting that it is all circumstantial in nature and always open to fallibility.